Lake Of The Ozarks Real Estate Has More Than Tripled Experts' Predictions In 2017

LAKE OF THE OZARKS, Mo. — Home sales at the Lake grew dramatically in 2017, more than tripling predictions.

That's just a snippet of the major number-crunching from the 10th Annual Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Symposium earlier this month, Senior Business Consultant for RE/MAX Mid-States and Dixie Region joined local RE/MAX Lake of the Ozarks partners Jason Whittle and Jeff Krantz in presenting to hundreds of realtors. All three used data compiled since the 2008 downturn to show the Lake region is steadily, gradually making a comeback. Barring unforeseen factors such as natural catastrophes or the loss of the mortgage interest deduction, they expect the Lake’s real estate market should continue to grow.

Growth by the Numbers

Krantz predicted modest growth in sales and volume last year at the 2016 symposium. He thought 4-6% gains in sales and 6-8% in volume were realistic. He was low. In the first 3 quarters of 2017, sales grew by 14% and volume by 24%.

Snook reported comparable positive trends for the national real estate market, noting one year ago, median days on the market were 47 whereas to date in 2017, the median is only 34. This puts buyers at a slight disadvantage in that they must now act quickly when analyzing and deciding to make an offer. Sellers, however, may well enjoy multiple offers.

Furthermore, data show owners are “back in the black” across the nation as real estate prices hold or trend upward, protecting equity investments. The current balance between supply and demand also suggests properties will hold their value, thanks in part to declining default and foreclosure rates. In 2011, at the lake, foreclosures were at 9.5%. In 2017, they are down to 2.9%.

Low interest rates continue to contribute to growth, and Snook, Whittle, and Krantz believe good rates for 30-year fixed mortgages will hold. A modest increase of 1/2 to 1 percent is Krantz’s prediction for 2018.

Finally, the retiree population continues to swell, and that’s good for Lake of the Ozarks: a dream destination for retirees.

Lake of the Ozarks’ Inventory and Sales

It’s “all good” at Lake of the Ozarks, according to Whittle. Since 2009, one of the lowest points in Lake real estate, total transactions of all property types are up 83%. Just in the past year, the increase has been 9%--from 2,151 in 2016 to 2,456 through the 3rd quarter of 2017.

Volume mirrors total transactions at the lake. Since 2009, the total volume of all property types is up 105%. In just one year--between 2016 and this quarter in 2017, numbers show the increase is 24.3% with an impressive volume of $506,000,000.

Median prices and prices per square foot prove the value of the lake’s property as well. The median price for a residential home is up 7.6% while the price per square foot for those homes is up 5.9% at $108.

In 2010, an owner could expect long periods on the market as only 1 of every 5.15 listings sold. Today, that figure is 1 of 2.44 listed. In other words, of 5,988 new properties listed in 2017, 2,456 have sold.

In 2017, the market “pie” is 30% off-water residential, 30% waterfront residential, 28% condominium, 8% lots and lands, 2% commercial, 2% villas, and 1% farms. Except for commercial properties, values for these are trending upward, but the condominium trend is particularly encouraging as it had been flat. With several new condominium projects such as the 12-story, luxurious Cypress at the Lake, located at the 12-mile marker, the condo market appears poised for more growth.

Krantz also foresees large gains in the waterfront market, especially for luxury properties priced at $500,000 or higher. He predicts growth in both sales and volume for luxury waterfronts, based on upward trends since 2011.

In 2016, 548 waterfront properties sold. Volume was $177.9 million and average sales price $324,600. To date in 2017, the waterfront sales volume is $247.5 million and the price $337,200 for 732 properties.

Ongoing Challenges to Real Estate: Myth and Inventory

RE/MAX Lake of the Ozarks would like to bust the myth that property doesn’t sell in the winter. To disprove this oft-repeated myth, RE/MAX provided a slide, “Total Lake of the Ozarks Sales by Month.” The bar chart shows closings in June and August are higher than in other months, but data also shows more than 20% of all properties consistently close in winter months.

Inventory is another factor checking growth. New homes and condominiums are needed. However, 17% of young adults still living at home with their parents and not moving into the real estate market prove a need for affordable housing. Current lending practices require a down payment that many young adults cannot meet. The cost of lots, infrastructure, labor, and materials are other factors adding to the slow recovery in single-family housing starts as well as new construction of all types.

Good Data. Good Numbers. Great Future.

After tracking the data at Lake of the Ozarks and across the nation, RE/MAX Lake of the Ozarks is bullish on real estate, especially here. In fact, Lake of the Ozarks is among the best markets. Lower home prices and higher ownership rates in the area suggest Horace Greeley’s advice should be amended to read: Go Midwest, Young Man. That’s where buyers and sellers have good advantages.