No, You're Not Imagining It: Lake Of The Ozarks' Water Level Is Lower Than Normal

The shoreline looks like January, but it's only November: the Lake of the Ozarks water level is noticeably low for this time of year.

Lake of the Ozarks homeowners have been noticing more shoreline exposed this autumn; some have complained on local social media groups that their plans for a fall outing were grounded, thanks to lower-than-normal Lake levels. While boaters in shallow coves are accustomed to seeing their dock bumping the Lake floor in the dead of winter — when Ameren draws the Lake down approximately six feet from its summer "full pool" high point — they aren't used to the water level being so low so soon.

The numbers support their stories: As of Monday morning, Nov. 7, Lake of the Ozarks' water level measured at Bagnell Dam was 657 feet of elevation above sea level.

But in early November of the past several years, the Lake level was significantly higher.

Lake Of The Ozarks Water Levels On Nov. 7, Most Recent 5 Years

2022: ~657

2021: ~658.9

2020: ~658.4

2019: ~659

2018: ~658.5

View hourly-updated Lake of the Ozarks (headwater) and Osage River (tailwater) levels, here.

So the water level is low by a foot and a half or so, compared to recent years. However, it's still within the limits set by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), which regulates dams like Bagnell Dam. Dam operators reference a Guide Curve for a target water level throughout the year. In the summer, the Guide Curve has the Lake level at 659. The curve drops by a foot after Labor Day, and then after a brief build-up in December, the Guide Curve falls through January and into February, with a target winter Lake level of approximately 654 feet of elevation. Ameren provides hourly reports of Lake level and water flow, and adjusts flow based on coordination with other water-body authorities (such as the Army Corps of Engineers, which operates Truman Dam), anticipation of impending weather events, response to energy needs (the dam can generate 215 megawatts at peak generation), and expectation of annual heavy spring rain.

Ameren Guide Curve

With the Lake's real estate market on fire over the past two years, the region welcomed many new residents, who bought a waterfront home, a dock, and a boat. This fall, those new residents have discovered that while the Lake of the Ozarks water level is generally predictable, sometimes there are unpleasant surprises. Another of those surprises came in February of 2021, when Lake of the Ozarks froze across thanks to the catastrophic Winter Storm Uri. During that frigid week, Ameren had to continue running water through Bagnell Dam in order to supply enough water to keep the downstream Labadie Coal Power Plant operating: that meant the water began dropping out from underneath docks that were no longer floating, but instead were bound-up in ice. The rare confluence of events created untold millions of dollars in dock damage along the Lake's 1,100+ miles of shoreline. (Read more about Winter Storm Uri & how Bagnell Dam helped keep Missourians' furnaces running. View rare photos of the Lake frozen.)

The Guide Curve targets a water level of 658 for the fall, but the Lake level is more than a foot below that.

Why?

"It’s because of the drought," said Travis Hart, Plant Manager at Bagnell Dam. "Folks may not feel like they’re in a drought here," he acknowledged, but he pointed out about 85% of the Lake of the Ozarks' inflows come through Truman Lake, and the river basin feeding it starts in eastern Kansas, and it comes down through Truman Lake.

In late-September and pretty much all of October, Missouri was in a D-2 Severe Drought, Hart pointed out. Recent heavy rains have alleviated that for much of Missouri (the Lake area is now in D0 – D1 conditions), but during that same time parts of Kansas were — and still are — in a D-4 Exceptional Drought.

Drought Conditions - Kansas — NWS screengrab

Ameren is required by FERC to maintain a minimum water flow through Bagnell Dam, so when inflows are at a near standstill for weeks like they were this fall, Hart said it means Lake of the Ozarks will necessarily be slowly dropping. Even the recent rains — while good for vegetation and soil — did not do much for the Lake level, Hart said, because the soil soaked up the majority of the moisture.

However, he noted, "If we keep getting these little rains, our inflows will come up so we’ll be able to store some water." He said he would like to build-up the Lake's water level to 659 feet of elevation by the end of the year, in anticipation of winter power generation needs and the annual drawdown that gives room for spring rains to fill the Lake back up to full pool by Memorial Day. Hart noted the National Weather Service's long-term forecast is expecting a normal amount of precipitation for the spring.

Hart says if the drought pattern continued, Ameren would do everything it could to keep water in the Lake through the winter, both for property owners as well as for the ability to generate on-demand power as Missourians run their furnaces. He doesn't expect especially low Lake levels through the winter, but he did offer a reminder for dock owners to prepare their docks once the winter drawdown begins in January. His three main pieces of advice:

• Lengthen the dock cables (doing this too early can backfire though, especially during a windy autumn, since it may give the dock too much room to move, before the water level has dropped)

• Make sure the dock pivots work

• Invest in sufficient deicers, to keep your dock ice-free

Hart also points Lake of the Ozarks dock owners to Ameren's Lake Level Line, which is updated every weekday, as well as the daily online reporting and forecasts for Lake levels.

Ameren Lake Level Line: ‭(573) 365-9205‬

Ameren Online Reports: https://www.ameren.com/missouri/residential/lake-of-the-ozarks/lake-levels-and-operations