LAKE OF THE OZARKS, Mo. — This winter at the Lake will likely not be colder than average, and there’s a chance it could even be a bit warmer, following the trend of the last two years, according to the National Weather Service/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The NWS on Thursday released its forecast of likely winter temperature and precipitation patterns. Overall, the weather service predicts a somewhat warmer-than-average winter for much of the country, except the northwest, which could be colder and wetter thanks to La Niña activity in the Pacific Ocean. The Lake area isn’t expected to be any wetter or drier than average, but has a slightly better chance of a warmer-than-normal winter.
The NWS’ predictions give the likelihood of a warmer, cooler, or average winter, and the difference in this case is not all that great for central Missouri: 38% chance of a warmer winter, 34% chance of an average winter, and 28% chance of a cooler winter. Probably the clearest conclusion is that it’s unlikely that this winter will be an especially cold one.
Here’s a link to the temperature outlook for the Lake area from November through January.
The average temperature at the Lake between the months of November and January is about 38 degrees.
February at the Lake could be a bit of a wild card (no surprise there), since the Dec–Feb prediction actually shows a likelihood of average or below-average temperatures, rather than the above-average of the Nov–Jan period. Last February was a warm one. On February 11 of 2017, the Lake area hit 79 degrees, setting a new record. Then, a week later, the temperature reached the 70s in six out of seven days.
Of course, all of the above comes with a giant asterisk: Missouri weather.
Summary Of Warm Winter Months At The Lake Since 2014
MONTH — AVG./NORM.
(Colder-than-average months in italics; all others warmer-than-average)
Feb. 2017 — 47.3/36.1
Jan. 2017 — 39/32
Dec. 2016 — 35.5/36.6
Nov. 2016 — 54.2/46.8
Feb. 2016 — 41/36.1
Jan. 2016 — 34.9/32
Dec. 2015 — 45.6/35.5
Nov. 2015 — 52/46.8
Feb. 2015 — 29.9/36.1
Jan. 2015 — 35/32
Dec. 2014 — 39.7/35.5
Nov. 2014 — 43.1/46.8
